Nate Silver’s take on the whole issue at the New York Times.
Essentially, when you are dealing with uncertainty, the only way you can approach an opinion is by looking at the likelyhoods of an outcome given the surrounding information as it relates to the context of historically similar situations.
Almost everything about Assange’s current criminal accusations differs from any other similar criminal rape investigations. Thus, the differences are not likely due to the accusations of rape, but some other factor.
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